Quantitative Health Risk Analysis Methods

Quantitative Health Risk Analysis Methods

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This book grew out of an effort to salvage a potentially useful idea for greatly simplifying traditional quantitative risk assessments of the human health consequences of using antibiotics in food animals. In 2001, the United States FDAa€™s Center for Veterinary Medicine (CVM) (FDA-CVM, 2001) published a risk assessment model for potential adverse human health consequences of using a certain class of antibiotics, fluoroquinolones, to treat flocks of chickens with fatal respiratory disease caused by infectious bacteria. CVMa€™s concern was that fluoroquinolones are also used in human medicine, raising the possibility that fluoroquinolone-resistant strains of bacteria selected by use of fluoroquinolones in chickens might infect humans and then prove resistant to treatment with human medicines in the same class of antibiotics, such as ciprofloxacin. As a foundation for its risk assessment model, CVM proposed a dramatically simple approach that skipped many of the steps in traditional risk assessment. The basic idea was to assume that human health risks were directly proportional to some suitably defined exposure metric. In symbols: Risk = K A— Exposure, where a€œExposurea€ would be defined in terms of a metric such as total production of chicken contaminated with fluoroquinolone-resistant bacteria that might cause human illnesses, and a€œRiska€ would describe the expected number of cases per year of human illness due to fluoroquinolone-resistant bacterial infections caused by chicken and treated with fluoroquinolones.Technical methods for displaying the results of sensitivity analyses (e.g., tornado diagrams, relative importance plots, spider diagrams) have been developed in the decision and risk analysis literatures and are appropriate to include in ... Given the increasing availability of high-quality uncertainty and sensitivity analysis software, risk analyses should now be expected to quantify and present all keyanbsp;...

Title:Quantitative Health Risk Analysis Methods
Author: Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Publisher:Springer Science & Business Media - 2006-03-17

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